Obama; VA, NH, PA, IA, CO, IA, NM, MN, WI
McBombit; FL, MI, OH, NV, MO
I’m never confident about my predictions at the best of times, and I'm definitely iffy about giving McBombit Michigan, as it could easily go to BO, but in the same token Virginia and Colorado would shock no one if they ended up as red states. Of course they're all going to be tight scraps, and a LOT can change between now and Nov 4th, but for the sake of this scenario lets say I got it right.
Well, for the first time I saw that a split decision was a genuine possibility, my scenario came out 269/269. Yes, it was enough to send shivers down my spine, but thanks to a recent article on electoral-vote.com and their dogged pursuit of all things political, I may be able to allay your fears some.
The article, which due to the fact I was too shortsighted to see a split occurring, I initially ignored, perhaps prophetically pointed out that in the event of a split college the House of Representatives take a vote to decide on the winner. But, and it's a big but, with the caveat that each state cast a single vote regardless of population density. Meaning that a state as unpopulated as dear old Alaska receives the same voting power as say California, which is just jam packed full of fantastic Americans, and it is with this caveat that the shenanigans begin.
There are 435 members (representatives) sitting in the House of Representatives and they are proportionally divided between the states, a densely populated state like California receives 53 representatives, and a less populated state such as Virginia receives 11. However, under this ruling with each state receiving one vote, California will bring all its representatives (Republican and Democrat) together and take a vote to decide which candidate will receive California's vote. In California’s case there are a majority of Democrats holding seats so it is most likely that California will cast its vote for Barack Obama. Whereas Texas has 32 representatives, and the majority are Republican, so Texas will probably cast its vote for John McCain and so on.
When the states with a single representative come to place their vote, the representative will either be a Republican or a Democrat, and as such you would’ve thought they'd cast their vote accordingly, but ironically this is where it can get complicated. It is exactly this scenario that the electoral-vote.com article focuses on.
There are seven sparsely populated rural states that receive a single House seat, they are; Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming. Three of those states are likely to vote Republican in the general election, but elect Democrats to Congress, they are; North Dakota, South Dakota and of course, Alaska!
Alaska has been looking to throw out the old guard of Alaskan politics. The people of the state have become fed up with the endless corruption associated with their congressional delegation and want a change. Until McCain's inspired choice of running mate, Alaska had even looked like a race the Democrats might've won. Still, although Alaskans are now likely to vote for one of their own on the presidential ticket, they don't have that problem when it comes to the congressional races.
Electoral-vote.com have closely followed the hotly contested Republican primary between Lt. Governor Sean Parnell and veteran Don Young. Don Young has served 18 consecutive terms as Congressman for Alaska, and has been partnering Ted Stevens for 35 years, they are the old guard, both are under investigation, Stevens already having been indicted.
The Democratic Party candidate for Congress is Ethan Berkowitz, who had been running badly in polls against Parnell. The funny thing is that Parnell would’ve almost certainly beaten Berkowitz, but the Republicans, being Republicans, elected Don Young in the primary and Berkowitz is running 15-20 pts ahead of Don young in the same polls. So, it looks like a shoe-in, confused? I was.
Basically, it seems these people are Republicans at heart, they believe they are conservatives, but they are honest conservatives first, or at least the majority are, and as such are not prepared to trade their honesty and dignity for the sake of getting a crook elected. So left to chose between re-electing the criminal Don Young, or breaking ranks and voting Democrat, most prefer the Democrat.
Here’s what Electoral-vote.com had to say...
...As expected, the renomination of Rep. Don Young (R-AK) for Congress may pretty much end the GOP's hopes to hold the seat against Democrat Ethan Berkowitz. This seat is an especially important one because the presidential race is so close that a 269-269 tie is certainly a possibility. In the case of a tie, the new House elects the President with each state getting one vote.
That would mean Berkowitz gets as much say as all of California. Like Earl Pomeroy (D-ND) and Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (D-SD), he would be in a situation of being a Democrat in a state that went wildly for McCain. Pomeroy has been around for a while and can probably withstand the pressure applied to him to vote as his state did, but Herseth-Sandlin and Berkowitz as relatively newbies will get introduced to power politics real fast. A situation in which Berkowitz, Herseth-Sandlin, and Pomeroy got together for lunch in a smoke-free room to pick the President would be kind of unprecedented.
Electoral-vote.com went on to show what they looked like, and as they could be the three people who end up deciding the fate of the country (and the world) sometime after November 4th, I thought it prudent to show you too, here they are...
Ethan Berkowitz(D-AK) is on the left of Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin(D-ND), and Earl Pomeroy(D-SD) is on Stephanie's right.
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